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Prediction for CME (2019-10-25T05:54:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2019-10-25T05:54Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/15126/-1
CME Note: From Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: The magnetic field and plasma parameters exhibit signatures of an ICME - stronger B that the ambient solar wind, expanding structure and low temperature. I would say that this is probably a very beautiful CME-streamer blow-out. You probably did not see any disk signatures, dimming, flares but this is why it is so slow, weak, and with barely a sheath region or shock.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2019-10-29T15:02Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-10-29T21:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 25/2047UTC
Radial velocity (km/s): 287 km/s
Longitude (deg): 2W
Latitude (deg): 8S
Half-angular width (deg): 27 degs 

Notes: Clearly visible on Stereo A, and weakly visible on SOHO lasco C2 diff. images. C3 data not available at present in the CAT tool. It may become embedded in the next high speed stream from -CH77 and difficult to detect a signature in the solar wind data. Initial WSA Enlil modelling suggests an arrival time of 29/1200Z, but some of the latest Ensemble members push this out to 30/1200Z. Therefore 29/2100Z +/-9 hrs is our best guess at present, with low confidence.  
Space weather advisor: AMS

Lead Time: 53.03 hour(s)
Difference: -5.97 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2019-10-27T10:00Z

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